Last year I made a 100% guess of a prediction that the Pirates would win 80 games. They won 79.
As part of that prediction though, I also said the Bucs would exceed the elusive .500 mark this year. I have learned a decent amount about statistics over the past year though, and all that new knowledge is pushing me to retract that prediction. But I won’t.
Because as accurate as predictions have become over the last few decades, there is virtually complete agreement that luck still plays a role in all this. Which is why I predict the Pirates will finish the 2013 season with a record of 82-80. Not because of improved players or new additions, but because they will luck into it.
The final part of my pre-2012 prediction was that the Pirates would make the playoffs next year in 2014… I don’t know what I was thinking when I wrote that, but it is going to take a lot of luck to pull that off. Get your green weenies out now.