“In three years time, desktops will be irrelevant,” says John Herlihy, European Director of Google’s online sales.
Sorry, but I just can’t see that turning out to be true. Three years is an eternity in the tech world. Surely we’ll have things that haven’t even been thought of today, but I don’t see any of them replacing the desktop, or some form of it.
Less people see movies in theaters than used too, but that’s not because they can download them to the iPhones, it’s because larger TVs, better sound, and crisper pictures has created a better home viewing experience. Recently, 3D movies in IMAX have upped the ante again, but home entertainment has been quicker than ever in catching up.
Sooner or later computers and TVs may meld into a single entity, they’ll have HD and 3D capabilities, with 17.1 surround sound, maybe smell will be integrated, maybe you won’t even have to use a keyboard, but the size of the screen will be larger, not smaller.
I use a 17-inch notebook, which is larger than most, but I still prefer to use a larger desktop monitor whenever possible. I have experimented with my TV and it is better to watch YouTube on, but I won’t be using it the next time I play Minesweeper.
The smaller screen is simply too limiting. It’s crazy to track all those Tweets and Facebook updates though a tiny little screen, even if you can have them all open at once you are then limited in your options.
It’s not just video, you can forget about writing a research paper on any kind of smart phone.
Herlihy continued, “In Japan, most research is done today on smart phones, not PCs.”
That makes sense. Smart phones will be used more in the future because they allow the internet to be taken anywhere. To be able to access Google, IMDB, or the latest sports scores comes in handy numerous times daily. Amount of time used or searches on a smart phone will likely be higher for most people than those on a desktop, but the quality won’t be.
I can never see myself reading a thousand word article on a four-inch screen.
What do you see for the future of screens? Bigger or smaller, or both?
Originally published March 4, 2010.